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Articles
Non-life insurance: 100 not out
 

The Insurance Assocation’s report “Shaping Our Future: 2023 Vision for Turkish Insurance and Pensions Sector” sets some heady targets for the industry by the time the Turkish Republic reaches its century.

 

In this article I want to flesh out some of the factors behind the headline figure of non-life branch premium increasing fourfold to 63 billion Turkish lira, maling Turkey the 16th largest non-life market in the world.

 

First of all, this is the “high aspiration growth scenario”. As actuaries, we are used to scenario testing. Using full stochastic methodology we would run a model on a range of assumptions, all calibrated to represent the probable likelihood of them coming true. In presenting the results to our clients we may choose to illustrate a few of these scarios calling them “market consistent” or “best-estimate” or “pessimistic” or “optimistic”. We may prefer to use euphemisms rather than the latter two, choosing to call them “cautious” or “aggressive” respectively.

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Incidence rates for illness and disease
 

Tables published as part of Turkey’s Health Survey 2012 issued by Turkey Statistical Institute (TÜİK) this month contain information about incidence rates of certain illnesses and diseases, of relevance in pricing for life, disability, critical illness and health products.

The analysis in this article is based on table 4 which covers the percentage of diseases/health problems diagnosed in the over 15 population by a medical doctor. A similar table, table 3, contains data on the incidence rates of the same illnesses and diseases, but based on self-declaration. As expected, rates in table 3 are some 1-3 percentage points above those in table 4.

The number one medical condition listed in the table is hypertension, with a diagnosed incidence rate of 12.8% (8.5% for males and 17.1% for females).

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Obesity, hypertension and related health issues in Turkey
 

The results of Turkey’s Health Survey 2012 just published by Turkey Statistical Institute (TÜİK) make fascinating reading for actuaries involved in mortality projections and pricing life, critical illness and health products.

The headline figures relate to the BMI and obesity statistics. 17.2% of over 15s in Turkey are classed as obese – with a BMI over 30. 34.8% are counted as overweight (BMI: 25-30), 44.2% as normal (BMI: 18.5-30) and 3.9% as underweight (BMI under 18.5).

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I'm One in (nearly) Two Million
 

Figures from the Association of Turkish Insurance and Reinsurance Companies published for the end of 2009 show an astoundingly small number of people insured in the health branch.

We have known for years that, although Turkey has one of the largest population's in Europe (at 72 million), it also has one of the lowest penetration rates of insurance coverage.

Only 13 million life insurance policy holders, and 9,6 million accident policy holders is a bad enough figure, particularly when you take into account that although multiple policies with one insurance company are only counted as one life-insured, there is a considerable amount of double-counting between insurance companies, since one citizen may have policies with more than one company.

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Health insurance: content of company actuary's report
 

The regulations covering private health insurance which were issued on 23 October 2013 included provisions for the Treasury to outline the contents of an annual actuarial report on their company’s activities in the health branch.

Two days ago the Treasury issued sectoral announcement no 2014/10 which contains the format of this report. Just in time, because the first reports for the year end 2013 were due to be sent to the Insurance Information and Monitoring Centre by the end of April (a little under three weeks away!). But actuaries can heave a small sigh of relief: the last paragraph of the sectoral announcement provides for a deadline of the end of June for the 2013 reports, with the April deadline applying for future years.

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