The Insurance Assocation’s report “Shaping Our Future: 2023 Vision for Turkish Insurance and Pensions Sector” sets some heady targets for the industry by the time the Turkish Republic reaches its century.
In this article I want to flesh out some of the factors behind the headline figure of non-life branch premium increasing fourfold to 63 billion Turkish lira, maling Turkey the 16th largest non-life market in the world.
First of all, this is the “high aspiration growth scenario”. As actuaries, we are used to scenario testing. Using full stochastic methodology we would run a model on a range of assumptions, all calibrated to represent the probable likelihood of them coming true. In presenting the results to our clients we may choose to illustrate a few of these scarios calling them “market consistent” or “best-estimate” or “pessimistic” or “optimistic”. We may prefer to use euphemisms rather than the latter two, choosing to call them “cautious” or “aggressive” respectively.