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Articles
Term-life market: 100 not out
 

The Insurance Assocation’s report “Shaping Our Future: 2023 Vision for Turkish Insurance and Pensions Sector” sets some heady targets for the industry by the time the Turkish Republic reaches its century.

 

In this article I want to flesh out some of the factors behind the headline figure of the market for term life insurance increasing from a current premium of 2 billion TL to 16 billion TL. 

First of all, this is the “high aspiration growth scenario”; there is also a l less aggressive “accelerated growth scenario” which naturally enough did not attract such media attention (see my non-life article for comments on this).

The current real compounded annual growth rate of term-life GWP is 30%. Penetration, when measured as GWP divided by GDP, is a paltry 0,16%.

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Life and pensions market: 100 not out
 

The Insurance Assocation’s report “Shaping Our Future: 2023 Vision for Turkish Insurance and Pensions Sector” sets some heady targets for the industry by the time the Turkish Republic reaches its century.

 

In this article I want to flesh out some of the factors behind the headline figure of growth in Funds Under Management in Life and Pensions from 13 billion TL to 408 billion TL. This would be a compunded annual growth rate of 28% (c.f. current 18%), and would move Turkey from 49th to 30th position in world rankings on FUM.

First of all, this is the “high aspiration growth scenario”; there is also a l less aggressive “accelerated growth scenario” which naturally enough did not attract such media attention (see my non-life article for comments on this).

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SWOT analysis on Turkish insurance industry
 

Turkey is always a crazy conundrum. One expat friend of mine describes it as “the agony and the ecstasy” of living here. The very factors that excite our senses and enliven our imaginations can at the same time be the ultimate sources of frustration and even pain.

“How much longer?” is my usual cry when I discuss with someone the fact that, given all of the economic and demographic data we have to hand, it is obvious that at some stage in the future the Turkish insurance market must achieve growth and take its place as a strong contributor to Turkey’s GNP, just as the insurance industry is across most of the developed world.

A SWOT analysis included in the Insurance Association’s report “Shaping Our Future: 2023 Vision for Turkish Insurance and Pensions Sector” comes to the not-unsurprising conclusion: the Turkish insurance market has an unfulfilled potential.

 

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Non-life insurance: 100 not out
 

The Insurance Assocation’s report “Shaping Our Future: 2023 Vision for Turkish Insurance and Pensions Sector” sets some heady targets for the industry by the time the Turkish Republic reaches its century.

 

In this article I want to flesh out some of the factors behind the headline figure of non-life branch premium increasing fourfold to 63 billion Turkish lira, maling Turkey the 16th largest non-life market in the world.

 

First of all, this is the “high aspiration growth scenario”. As actuaries, we are used to scenario testing. Using full stochastic methodology we would run a model on a range of assumptions, all calibrated to represent the probable likelihood of them coming true. In presenting the results to our clients we may choose to illustrate a few of these scarios calling them “market consistent” or “best-estimate” or “pessimistic” or “optimistic”. We may prefer to use euphemisms rather than the latter two, choosing to call them “cautious” or “aggressive” respectively.

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Aiming for gold by 2023
 

In 2023 the Turkish Republic will celebrate its 100th birthday. In preparation for this milestone event, various government departments, industry sectors and civil society groups are making plans based around where they would like to be in the year 2023.

The Turkish insurance sector is no exception, and a major report produced by the Association of Turkish Insurance Companies in association with consultants McKinsey sets targets for growth between now and 2023. It is entitled “Shaping Our Future: 2023 Vision for Turkish Insurance and Pension Sector”.

Without vision the people perish; this is a vision for robust growth as insurance takes its place in the wider vision announced by the government to make Istanbul into an international financial centre.

The main headline is that insurance should grow from its current position of 0,5% of GNP to some 11%.

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Old at 65?
 

Last month, as part of Turkey’s “Respect for the Elderly Week”, the State’s Turkey Statistical Institute published a news bulletin containing a number of interesting tables of information relating to the structure, education level, marital status, and income levels of Turkey’s elderly population. These statistics are of interest to any insurance company offering insurance products to seniors, in particular they are relevant to the debate about annuity products.

 In 2012, the percentage of Turkey’s population aged over 65 was 7.5%. This is astonishingly low when compared with the European average of 17.5% in 2011. The UK’s figure in 2011 was 16.7%. In Japan, one of the world’s most elderly populations, some 23% of the population were over 65.

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